PC and Mac dead in 5 years?

Two other pieces of evidence showing, as I see it, that Apple wants to make Mac more of an iPad are 1) its new LaunchPad app, which came with Lion and offers a very-iPad like user interface - all those icons in a grid, with no sign of Finder or files or desktop; and 2) its removal of much quite useful color from the Finder interface, namely in the sidebars of Finder windows, where icons for disk volumes that used to be easy to distinguish by color are now all grey (and therefore difficult to ID). Add to this Time Machine, which makes backups automatic, and the new function in Lion that opens apps exactly where one left off when they were closed, and you are moving to a machine that doesn't require people to keep track of files and folders and the like. Oh, and there's the TouchPad, offering gesture control and replacing the mouse. And, of course, there's the latest attempt to extend the Mac seamlessly up into the cloud.

Who knows, perhaps some quite powerful music-making apps will get written in HTML5, which is getting much attention right now as a cross-platform rich-media programming environment.

In short, I think Ross is quite right, there is much evidence and reason to believe that the desktop computer as we know it is headed for the retirement home.

On the other hand, Apple, in particular, has a strong following in the creative world - visual artists, photographers, film editors and animators, and audio editing/production - and there, people do need lots of horsepower (about as much as they can get their hands on) and the aid of specialized peripherals, all of which right now, anyway, seems beyond the scope of an iPad-thing. But who knows?

Somebody somewhere will have to fill in for the desktop market. I really don't buy on the mobile platform thingy at all. It all seems big brother to me.

Regarding the place of "the creative world - visual artists, photographers, film editors and animators, and audio editing/production" in Apple's future plans, I have 4 letters to say to that: FCPX :-)

I think Ross's prediction is on the right track. I see this as more of a 10 year transition than a 5 year one though. It's one thing to rewrite the rules for a new platform... people don't have expectations for it if it doesn't exist yet. Rewriting the rules for an existing platform is much harder to do without alienating the userbase - just ask netflix. Even w/ FCPX apple had to backtrack (at least in the short-term).

In reply to paradiddle, when was the last time "seeming big brother" stopped a giant corporation from pursuing a highly profitable course of action? Unfortunately, conforming to our personal value systems is an incentive that is usually outweighed by other factors for profit-maximizing institutions. The argument also isn't entirely one-dimensional. Apple and others may argue that dual issues of security and piracy are becoming so intractable under the current framework that sandboxing and centralized control are optimal for society as a whole.

@revo11: "Apple and others may argue that dual issues of security and piracy are becoming so intractable under the current framework that sandboxing and centralized control are optimal for society as a whole."

It's an easy argument to make in the current environment. It would be nice to think that legislators would require and support something like "open computing and computational free speech" but in fact we are seeing the exact opposite -- previous (DMCA) and pending Copyright/IP legislation: SOPA, PROTECT IP, combined with the USA's ongoing push to establish equivalent legal frameworks with its trading partners (examples available on request).

I found this to be an interesting perspective with regard to the current state of play in open computing:
http://www.law.harvard.edu/news/2011/11/30_zittrain-the-personal-computer-is-dead.html

I always found it funny that Apple's OS is built on linux and the company itself is totally the opposite of open source or open computing. All I see is mass consumerism on it's rise with people walking around with their Iphone in their faces all the time. Damn people wait in line all night to get a stupid little phone that only has better camera and a few niggles better than the last model. Oops, I forgot the S after the 4.

Sandboxing, cloud computing my arse. I'd rather take my chances in the wild like I have been doing since I've owned a Timex sinclair 1000. At least I'm free to do whatever I want and I back my own data up. It's not on some obscure company's server.

Thank you Apple for all the innovations you have done. We all owe it to you to where it's all going.

@paradiddle: correction: OS X is not built on Linux. It's built on BSD Unix (originally developed at UC-Berkely), on the Mach kernel (developed at CMU), and on NeXTSTEP (developed at NeXT after Steve Jobs left Apple the first time). The main thing is that BSD was always licenced in such a way that it could be used in proprietary products. The basic principle is that the State funds research that may then be commercially exploited by industry (in indirect way for the State to fund/assist industry). As today, there was never a strong "free software" basis in the BSD Unix stack. Apple have been doing what was always intended/permitted under the BSD licence. It is true that OS X uses some GNU ("free software") components, and that Apple have been increasingly avoiding GNU licenced components in recent years. But I don't see the contradiction you're claiming.

I don't really mind about the availability of source code so long as the operating system is an open infrastructure for running 3rd party software. That's the role of an operating system in my opinion -- an infrastructure. I don't see it being any more appropriate for Apple to be vetting/censoring what software can be run on their computers than it is for an electricity company to be deciding what I can plug in to my power sockets.

Link of the day:
Lockdown -- The coming war on general-purpose computing
By Cory Doctorow
http://boingboing.net/2012/01/10/lockdown.html

Somewhat relevant: This guy argues that Apple's Mac Pro towers may be a dead-end product line, that iMac and laptops can now do much of what those pricier machines can, that the addition of Thunderbolt to laptops and iMacs (but not, so far, to the towers) shows Apple's thinking, and more.

http://www.zdnet.com/blog/storage/is-the-mac-pro-dead/1566

@Ross

My correction then. I was told a while back it Linux but I should have checked thoses claims. Anyway
what used to be (still is for now) a nice platform for professionals is now headed towards mass consumerism. Steve Job is gone now so let's see where the company is headed.

Right now I'm sticking to Windows, I think it's safe to bet that it will still be a viable platform for quite a few years to come. If all else fails, I'll switch over to linux and do what the hell I want without companies dictating what I should put on my computer malware or not.

Hi Winslow,

I'm not sure this guy is saying what you are saying. He seems to be stating what Apple is thinking in general and still wants a mac pro in the future. Basically how much you can cram in a laptop or an Imac, you can still fit more in a tower. I guess he's indirectly voicing his own dissatisfaction to where it might be headed.

@ross

Awesome article, please post some more like that. I was a bit shocked at the end about the Lower Merion School District. It's the 1st time I hear about this particular incident. That is plain wrong but I guess it must also be happening on a bigger scale but it is slowly creeping up on us. I hope we will fight this big brotherhood to the end. I certainly will.

"Somebody somewhere will have to fill in for the desktop market. I really don't buy on the mobile platform thingy at all. It all seems big brother to me." - paradiddle

i agree - the loss of complete control of programs and content and this idea of storing all ur stuff in the cloud is just crazy to me.

Whatever happens, ill be sure to max out a top spec windows pc and keep it clean n healthy for a good while before i ever consider a tablet.

Ive played with an iPad and couldnt give a toss. Trendy toys for people that live for style over substance - like everything Mac.

Thanks for the thread Ross - this was all news to me.

The ipad's alright but the way I see is that it seems to be really restrictive for developers to come out with something without everything being approved. It's nice in a way cuz this keeps the crappy or dangerous apps at bay but then there isn't anymore freedom. We are being dictated what's good for us and not what we choose what's good for us. For some people that crash their OS every month, then I guess it's the way to go for them. And this is not just Apple, Microsoft too seems to be getting on the band wagon slowly.

Anyway on a positive note. Bitwig are coming out with a new Daw that will run on Windows, OS X and linux. So if audiomulch ever goes on linux too in the future, linux might be a viable alternative to all this madness. There's already energy XT also in there so maybe audio apps have a future on Linux but I won't hold my breath there. I already spent a few months with linux so I'm all ready to go ;)

DP just got ported to Windows... perhaps motu sees the same writing on the wall..

If any computer OS was to be moving away from the desktop/laptop it would have to be Mac as that's where their focus is already. I think Windows won't be moving anytime soon though because they seem to like to please all, and a lot of people aren't ready to move away from a desk, whether it's a desktop or laptop sitting on the desk.

I do see Linux lasting a while if they both disappeared though as it seems to have a user base more interested in doing their own rather than following the trends.
And while you still have online communities building their own computers you'll still have people using Windows and Linux.

Personally, I was using a PC that I only built a couple of years ago with a rather old laptop for live performances. I'll continue to use the PC for games but I'm moving onto a new laptop that I'll be docking at home for my music so I can have a better single machine setup. I do see more docking stations replacing desktops. It makes sense to me.

As for transformers, I was looking at the ASUS transformer Ross mentioned for casual use and for my lengthy daily train commute to work, but that could never be my main computer. Well, not until they improve anyway. After all, that's why I decided to buy a new laptop first and worry about a transformer down the line if I could afford it.

And I guess that's it, when they improve the only difference might be size and cost with the added benefit of a single machine for home and portable use. But until that is the case I will certainly require at least a laptop to run the kind of software I want to run.

A superb read. I have no clue about this all, so nothing to add. My only question is how it would affect Audiomulch if PC's and macs would get specialised machines besides mainstream-"XYZ"-s.

The audio-and-musician-world always was a niche compared to gamers and other users.
I am too new in the lovely world of PC-based music to know how switches from other platforms went for dedicated musicians. For example I remember that the sound-wizard Tim Conrardy (who died so early) once wrote to me about old Amiga machines and making music. That was as XP was around since quite some time and him working for a software company that released up-to-date synths that required newer machines. Still he, and it seems many other musicians (always compared to in what niche we're in of course) still raved about the Amiga or whatever machines and really used them. Of course that would be a niche in a niche.

For more people in the future, if it would not just go on for another decade "like this", your point "4" would be important. But it's really not clear how much that would be important for people. Germany is said to be so "concerned" about low-power/energy saving, but we sell millions of strangely archaic SUVs and fat "Minicooper" to the world since 12 years or so. One is really swallowing 66l/100 kilometres as long as you push it hard at the start (going down to "moderate" 30l later, cough). We got lots of guys (it's not only the "tea party"^^) making a living of bashing every scientist around and claiming they'd all be "some mad religious idiots".
Compared with things like that macs and PCs are great low-power machines already. I remember, as I have to use a laptop for writing, how great it was to switch from XP to vista sp2 as the energy-save-options were superb suddenly. How low-powered would those maybe existing niche PCs be :)?

So it would be really great to know what the future would be for musicians of all kinds.

I would never buy music software for iOS, just for the reasons you mention (and apart from that I have nothing here/ won't buy antything to run iOS software, he he). We all seem to know majorities that don't need an i-pad2 really, but are buying every new thing. Maybe that's the idea for the big companies - and it certainly leads into a direction you're explaining to us, Ross.

It's not clear what musicians will do. Sitting in a western café and writing a novel means being - in big cities at least - to be surrounded by 90% of people sitting together, everyone messaging or phoning with someone else ("I am at Rickenbacker street 17b, and where are you d'vil?" - I am at Rickenbacker 22 - hey I can see ya!" - "he he why do you still use that i-phone 4" - "Let's see what you got - will ya come over?" -"nay"....) Once i thought that was an exaggeration. It isn't, it's not good or bad, it just is. So it might be that musicians will find out it was distracting to make music with some future-XYZ that also is used for talking 2% wisdom and 98% time-killing nonsense. (Another question for another thread was how that affects our music^^, sometimes good things come out of boring experiences and people distracting you every day. Could you code software surrounded by daily- i-phone-talks, and what would it be^^).

Musicians from dedicated hobbyists like many of us to professionals maybe own such a play-internet-blurb-phone and still will have a dedicated audio machine? Maybe I'll end up, like I never thought, with a machine bought in 2015 with win9 or linux (if that would be an option) and using the latest Audiomulch and other software that will still run on it. We'd need a head in those companies who loves making music^^.

Okay, that was again a bit lengthy, but your posts are so inspiring. Cheers all!

This is a somewhat famous document published by Ray Ozzie while he was a big shot at Microsoft in 2010. It's called 'Dawn of a New Day' and it's aimed at prodding the Msft troops into thinking hard about what the inevitably "post-PC" world will look like.

http://ozzie.net/docs/dawn-of-a-new-day/

The gist of his argument is that sooner rather than later, we will all use relatively dumb devices attached to highly functional services up in the cloud. This has obvious implications for an outfit like Msft, which makes its money off of complex OS and app code running down on the ground, but what it might mean for a program like AudioMulch, I don't know.

On another note, since this thread began a few months ago, Apple has described its next version of OS X and made no bones of the fact that that software's UI will be heavily inspired and informed by that of the iPad - lots of gesture control, etc. This makes great sense for Apple, of course, as it should help make zillions of iPad owners feel more comfortable in buying themselves a Mac, too.

Nice, hadn't read that before.

I just read this too:
"The creation of content capabilities of PCs may not be enough to counteract the better content consumption capabilities of media tablets.” -- Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner.
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1944914

If, as Ozzie says, things are moving to the dominant paradigm being cloud based services accessed by "appliances," then I think an interesting question might be: where does that leave content creation, and computers that support content creation? Maybe content creators will go back to using obscure high performance workstations (like in the 80s) while the masses do their computing on tablets and smartphones.

Which would seem to be somewhat antithetical to the idea that each and every person who has computing power can also be a content creator.

Saw a screenshot of the app-like Windows 8 yesterday.

Absolutely terrible.

I thought Windows 7 had some vast improvements over Vista but Windows 8 is something I'll be avoiding completely.

@prolapse: Agreed. Broad and open access to computing power as a tool for creativity is not really the agenda being pursued by manufacturers. Creative software will still exist, but it will have to exist within the confines of platforms driven by different goals. To a fair degree this has always been the case on Windows and Mac of course, but the limitations seem to be increasing.

See for example, Apple's "App Sandbox Mindset" in the table here:
https://developer.apple.com/library/mac/#documentation/Security/Conceptual/AppSandboxDesignGuide/AppSandboxInDepth/AppSandboxInDepth.html

@B_Murphy: There is still "desktop mode" on Windows 8, on the x86 edition at least. Maybe not on ARM. I quite like the Metro UI myself.

Yeah, my response was a little hard without actually trying it, which I usually try to avoid. And I do definitely see the appeal of the UI for tablets, but that's where it stops for me. I think there were some great improvements in Windows 7, especially after Vista, it was like some of the early reviews said, Windows 7 is like a Vista that actually does what Vista was supposed to do. And the few previews I have seen for Windows 8 seem to be focused on the wow tablet stuff. Until I do read a few proper in depth reviews near its release I'll hold my final judgement, but with a newly updated laptop running 7, I doubt I'll be interested PC/laptop wise before they're working on 9. I can't usually afford to upgrade that quickly anyway.

An item at Ars Technica about Apple losing the pro-video editing market, confirming what someone here said earlier, above:

http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/2012/01/video-pros-apple-needs-to-acknowledge-the-pro-industry-and-fast.ars

That quote rings very true. It's perhaps even worse than that for musicians... a lot of content creation will translate to the cloud with a fast enough internet connection - e.g. computer animation. Out of content creation activities, music is one of the few where the difference between 1ms and 80ms actually matters. If anyone wants a taste of cloud-based music creation... try uloops on android. It was a good effort, but it isn't pretty.

Gaming is probably the last thing that's holding back the transition...